The Iranian exile community, numbering around 4 million, contemplates the potential for change in Iran, with many looking to Pahlavi as a stabilizing figure. A Canadian Iranian named Amin believes that Pahlavi, despite potential controversies surrounding his lineage, represents national continuity capable of uniting the country’s diverse demographics. A 2022 study indicated Pahlavi’s domestic approval at 39%, surpassing other political figures, though there are varying opinions about his actual support within Iran.
Opposition groups like the Mujahedeen e-Khalq (MEK), once backed by notable Western figures, have minimal internal traction due to their historical ties with Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq war. Critics express skepticism toward Pahlavi, viewing him as a pro-Western relic tied to the controversial past of his dynasty, which some believe could return to power with external military support from the U.S. and Israel.
Analysts, including Dina Esfandiary from Bloomberg Economics, question the validity of domestic polling and Pahlavi’s standing within Iran, arguing that many Iranians associate his family with the country’s current issues. Esfandiary notes the lack of a unifying figure among those desiring change, attributing it to the government’s violent repression of dissent, seen in events like the 2009 Green Movement and protests following Mahsa Amini’s death.
In Paris, Pahlavi urged the regime to step down, promising fair trial processes for officials, positioning himself as a hopeful leader who could guide Iran towards democracy. However, there remains a significant sentiment of fear and skepticism regarding his legitimacy and potential role in any forthcoming political transition.
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