US officials have provided little clarity on the future of the two-decade US military presence in Iraq, which is set to wind down by the end of 2025. While the US and Iraq have announced plans for a “transition” rather than a full withdrawal, specifics regarding the future of US troops in Iraq remain unclear.
The Biden administration has outlined a two-phase wind-down process, with the first phase expected to end in September 2025. This phase will involve the gradual withdrawal of coalition forces from certain locations in Iraq. The second phase will see the US continue to operate in Iraq through at least 2026 to support ongoing anti-ISIS efforts in Syria.
US-Iraq defense ties are expected to shift towards an expanded bilateral security relationship, although it is uncertain whether this will involve a full withdrawal of US troops. The US initially invaded Iraq in 2003 as part of the global “war on terror” following the September 11 attacks. Troop levels peaked at 170,000 in 2007 before most troops were withdrawn in 2011.
The Biden administration shifted the US mission from combat to advisory in 2021, prompting talks about further troop reductions. Continued US presence in Iraq has been a contentious issue, with Iran-aligned militias attacking US bases in the country. Talks about the future of US troops in Iraq have been ongoing since January, involving senior officials from both the Iraqi armed forces and the US-led coalition. While the situation remains uncertain, the US and Iraq appear to be moving towards a gradual and deliberate wind-down of US military presence in the region.
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