The outcome of the French legislative elections will have long-lasting effects on EU politics, with the possibility of a minority government or “cohabitation” raising concerns about France’s commitment to EU policies. Cohabitation has occurred in the past in France, with varying degrees of success in terms of collaboration on EU issues. However, the current ideological divide in France presents a greater challenge, especially if the far right or radical left form a government with President Macron. This could result in conflicts over implementing EU policies and strain relations with Brussels, especially given France’s recent issues with the European Commission over public finances.
The looming question is whether a compromise can be reached amidst the political instability in France, allowing for the necessary public investments required by the EU. A technocratic government may be needed to depoliticize these issues and push through reforms, but whether France can navigate this path remains to be seen. With the specter of further instability leading up to the presidential elections in 2027, finding common ground within the French government and with EU partners will be crucial for the bloc’s economic and monetary strategies moving forward. As the EU faces major challenges in the coming years, France’s ability to cooperate and make necessary changes will be closely watched by its European allies.
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